In research on Tuesday’s stock market crash, I came across this article on a model called ECM (Economic Confidence Model), it analyzes / predicts the investors confidence and claims that it follows in cycles. It’s kinda of intuitive, as the stock market rises, so does all kinds of negative news. By and by negative news causes concern which in the end causes a major investors confidence shakeup. Just imagine how an avalanche evolves.
The article was in 1999, and it predicts several dates into the future. One is 01/02/2005, which corresponds to a shake up, the other is 02/27/2007, the black Tuesday this week.
The article was in 1999, and it predicts several dates into the future. One is 01/02/2005, which corresponds to a shake up, the other is 02/27/2007, the black Tuesday this week.
Shawshank's 岁月点滴 
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